Mathematics and decision-making for Salmonella on UK pig farms
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Research partner: University of Liverpool
Sponsor: BPEX
Duration: 2008 – 2012
There is a lot of interest in interventions that can assist with the control of Salmonella on-farm and elsewhere in the food chain and mathematical models can be used to understand how the different parts of a system interact and can be used to predict how these parts may respond to changes.
The objectives of the research are to:
- Improve understanding of Salmonella dynamics on UK pig farms using mathematical models
- Provide model-based estimates of the likely effects of interventions on Salmonella burden
- Add to the evidence base available to the pig industry for decision making
- Investigate whether farm structure has an effect on Salmonella dynamics.
Models that describe Salmonella transmission around a finisher unit have been developed. Various routes of transmission have been accounted for, such as direct contact and airborne, as well as differing farm structures. As S. Typhimurium is the most predominant serotype isolated on pig farms, values relating to this serotype have been focused on where possible.
The project is now at the stage where models comparing structure within one farm type (eg a multiple room slatted farm and a single room slatted farm) and between farm type (solid flooring and slatted flooring) are ready to be tested for interventions and comparison.
This research should bring added value through its direct relevance to the pig industry. Identifying changes and interventions which may impact the Salmonella burden on-farm can help to predict the likely effects of interventions in real systems, which may ultimately have a direct practical benefit for the Zoonoses National Control Plan (ZNCP) in terms of identifying future surveillance priorities.
Page last updated
11 April 2011